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All five of the measures used to compile the Central Florida Economic Index are projected to fall in March, as the region struggles to latch on to the fledgling national recovery. The overall index -- a broad measure of economic activity across six counties - is expected to decline by about 4.13 percent.
The biggest drop is projected in housing permits, which are expected to fall by almost 36 percent from the same time last year. Tourist-tax collections are projected to be down by 8.22 percent, and employment is predicted to shrink by 4.75 percent.
The index includes data from Orange, Seminole, Osceola, Lake, Volusia and Brevard counties. Of those, only Seminole's index is expected to grow this month - by a miserly 1.18 percent.
The index measures employment, gallons of gasoline used, tourist-tax collections, building permits issued and electric meters in use (a sign of household formation).
The index's pattern has stubbornly persisted for more than a year, with only sporadic improvement among specific indicators. Overall, the full index has not yet settled into a predictable groove.
It was down by almost 8.5 percent at this time last year. The year-over-year decline shrank to 1.34 percent by August, but by November the loss was back up to 3.41 percent.
In December, the latest month for which actual data are available, the index was down 2.5 percent, a full point more than originally projected.
The numbers reflect Florida's difficulty in breaking free from the worst recession in more than seven decades. The state, devastated by the collapsing housing industry, suffers from an unemployment rate that has nudged its way up toward 12 percent.
Florida's prospects have remained bleak even as the national economy has begun to show signs of stabilizing, with the gross domestic product growing in each of the past two quarters and the pace of layoffs slowing considerably.
With few exceptions, however, companies have not yet shown a willingness to add workers or bring back those who were laid off. Many are waiting to determine if the recovery can be sustained after the flow of government stimulus money slows.
